9% Growth
in Housing or a 4% Loss?
When the news flashed on my
screen that housing construction had jumped by 9%, I raised an eyebrow. That
did not make sense given other data I was looking at. Immediately the media was
full of talking heads and stories about the turnaround in housing and the end
of the slowdown. I must admit to being a little confused.
Then we find the rest of the
story. Asha Bangalore from Northern Trust actually took the time to read the
details. It turns out that New York
City had a change in its construction codes, and that
affected what is considered a housing start in the Northeast, especially in
multi-family construction, which "jumped" 42% because of the code
change. If it were not for the change, housing starts nationwide would have
fallen by 4%. Because of the code change, housing
starts jumped 102% in the Northeast. However, single-family starts nationwide
declined 9.3% in June, to an annual rate of 647,000 units. That level of
single-family starts is the lowest since January 1991. Look at the following
chart from Northern Trust. Does this look like a 9% increase?
